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На сайте Bloomberg.com можно найти подборки и архивы новостей, ну вот, например, в то время, когда вся отечественная пресса уже "расшифровала" и Кудрина, и Улюкаева, и Путина, и газеты подхватили прогноз о начале стабилизации, Bloomberg опубликовал сценарий-бомбу прогноза цен на нефть. Вот вся перепечатка
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March 31 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil is set to drop to $28 a barrel in New York in the second quarter, according to technical analysis by Societe Generale SA.
Prices may rally until meeting resistance at $71 a barrel and then plunge to their lowest since 2003, Societe Generale analyst Stephanie Aymes said, using charts that make use of Elliott Wave theory.
“The market can continue to bounce, but in the next month the bear-trend will resume,” Aymes said in a telephone interview from London yesterday. Her prediction that oil will fall to $28 was made in the Paris-based bank’s technical analysis for commodities in the second quarter.
Aymes’s analysis using the Elliott Wave indicates that prices will rise, a rally bound by the $71 a barrel level last traded in November, and then drop to $33.20, a support shown by a trend-line of low points reached in the past 10 years. A drop below $33.20 opens the way for a further decline to a range between $28 and $25, her charts show. After that, support comes at $16.50 and $10 a barrel.
Crude has gained 12 percent this quarter after tumbling 56 percent in the previous three months. Oil last traded for $49.79 on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 12:12 p.m. London time.
The wave theory was developed in the 1930s by accountant Ralph Nelson Elliott and used by former Merrill Lynch & Co. analyst Robert Prechter in his recommendation to sell equities before the October 1987 crash.
Elliot’s theories held that markets swings, or waves, follow a predictable, five-stage structure of three steps forward, two steps back. The pattern is determined by the collective psychology of the people buying and selling.
To contact the reporter on this story: Grant Smith in London at gsmith52@bloomberg.net
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